The sight of people carrying Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) flags during Chief Minister and TVK president C Joseph Vijay’s roadshow in Madurantakam on Friday has added fresh fuel to speculation that the PMK could be warming up to the ruling TVK.
The PMK fought the April Assembly election as part of the AIADMK-led alliance. But for the October 6 bypolls, the party has chosen to remain neutral – neither supporting the AIADMK nor fielding candidates in Madurantakam and Dharapuram. The PMK has four MLAs, making its position politically significant.
PMK sources, however, say there has been no official instruction to support TVK and suggest that the flags could have been carried by enthusiastic cadres or individual supporters. PMK chief Anbumani Ramadoss has also criticised TVK candidate Maragatham Kumaravel over her resignation from the AIADMK and switch to TVK.
Yet, the presence of PMK flags during Vijay’s campaign is being closely watched because the party has a support base in Madurantakam. Any transfer of a section of PMK votes could influence a contest where the AIADMK is seeking to retain the seat it won only a few months ago.
Madurantakam is also a prestige battle for AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami. Kumaravel had won the seat for AIADMK in the Assembly election before resigning as MLA, quitting the party and joining TVK. She has now been renominated by TVK, triggering allegations of horse-trading from the opposition – a charge denied by the ruling party.
For Vijay, the stakes are particularly high as he heads a minority government that is short of the majority mark. A victory in Madurantakam and Dharapuram would not immediately bridge the entire gap but could give the ruling party important political momentum and set the tone for the bypolls to the other five vacant seats, whenever they are held. Those polls have been held up by pending election-related cases.
Winning the two seats would also take TVK closer to strengthening its numbers in the Assembly and give Vijay greater political room as his government enters its early months.
Vijay is clearly taking no chances. In an unusually intensive campaign for a by-election, he spent two days campaigning in Madurantakam, including a public meeting and a roadshow through more than 30 villages covering around 45 km. He also stopped at a roadside tea shop, interacted with residents and drove a farmer’s tractor.
TVK has been projecting itself as the new alternative to the AIADMK and DMK, while attacking the AIADMK as a declining force after Jayalalithaa’s death. The party has also accused EPS of attempting to forge an alliance with the DMK before the Assembly election to prevent TVK from forming the government – an allegation Palaniswami has denied.
For the PMK, neutrality could preserve its bargaining space irrespective of the bypoll outcome. If TVK benefits from a section of PMK supporters, the PMK could point to its neutral position and the consequent vote transfer. If TVK loses, the party could argue that it had not committed its organisational support to the ruling party.
TVK sources, meanwhile, say the party remains confident of building what they describe as an inclusive alliance, with both the VCK and PMK potentially part of the larger political arrangement. The VCK, a prominent Dalit-focused party, and the PMK, which champions the interests of the Vanniyar community, have been longstanding political rivals. The VCK has reiterated that it will not be part of an alliance with the PMK – a position it has maintained for years.
That makes the PMK’s current neutrality more than just a bypoll position. It could become an important signal of how Tamil Nadu’s political equations evolve after October 6.
The October 6 verdict could therefore have implications well beyond Madurantakam – for the strength of Vijay’s minority government, the future of the five other vacant seats and the alliance equations taking shape ahead.
