New Delhi:
A cabinet reshuffle before the Monsoon Session of Parliament appears unlikely, with the government prioritising key legislation over ministerial changes, sources said.
The Monsoon Session is likely to begin in the third week of July, most likely from July 20.
Sources indicate that the cabinet expansion may instead take place in September-October.
Legislative Priority Over Reshuffle
The government’s focus is firmly on passing crucial bills, including those related to delimitation and One Nation One Election, during the upcoming session. A reshuffle before the session could upset leaders likely to be excluded. With the government lacking a two-thirds majority in either House, it may not want to risk discontent ahead of key votes.
The possibility of a post-session expansion also gives the government a bargaining chip to secure the required numbers.
Limited Window For Changes
The Prime Minister’s schedule leaves little room for a reshuffle before the session begins. President Droupadi Murmu is on a two-day tour of Andhra Pradesh and will return on the evening of July 1.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be engaged with the Japan PM’s visit to India from July 1 to July 3.
On July 4, PM Modi is scheduled to visit Rajasthan.
From July 6 to July 11, he will be on a tour of Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand.
This leaves only July 5 available before the Monsoon Session.
Even if an expansion is done before July 20, new ministers would have limited time to prepare for the session.
However, precedent exists for last-minute changes.
On July 7, 2021, a major cabinet reshuffle in Modi 2.0 was carried out just before the Parliament session.
Twelve senior ministers, including Ravi Shankar Prasad and Prakash Javadekar, were dropped and 36 new ministers were inducted.
Past Cabinet Expansions
So far, four cabinet expansions have taken place in the last 12 years.
November 2014: 21 new ministers inducted.
July 2016: 19 new ministers inducted, 5 dropped.
September 2017: 9 new ministers inducted, 4 promoted, 6 dropped.
July 2021: 36 new ministers inducted, 12 dropped.
Possible Vacancies
A few vacancies have opened up in the cabinet. George Kurien has resigned as MoS Minority Affairs after his Rajya Sabha tenure ended. Though Ravneet Singh Bittu is continuing as a Union Minister despite not being a member of either House. His continuation is linked to the upcoming Punjab election.
MoS Finance Pankaj Chaudhary has been appointed UP BJP president, and MoS Harsh Malhotra has been named Delhi BJP chief. Given the ‘one person, one post’ principle, questions remain over whether they will be dropped.
Dropping Chaudhary ahead of the UP polls, however, could send the wrong political signal to the influential Kurmi community.
In the past, Vijay Sampla and G Kishan Reddy continued in the cabinet despite being appointed state presidents of Punjab and Telangana, respectively, keeping elections in mind.
Key Factors In Next Reshuffle
Performance: PM Modi reviewed ministers’ performance at the May 21 Council of Ministers meeting, where the Cabinet Secretary made a detailed presentation. This is likely to be a key criterion.
Young Faces: With the party president under 50, the BJP’s focus is on youth. The same may reflect in the cabinet. Eight ministers are currently in the 70-80 age bracket. Whether they continue remains to be seen.
Rajya Sabha Tenure: The terms of two ministers, Hardeep Singh Puri and B L Verma, end in November. Their renomination will be watched.
Women Representation: The government aims to implement 33% women’s reservation from 2029. Focus remains on women in the cabinet. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is the only woman in the key Cabinet Committee on Security.
Upcoming Elections: Polls are due in seven states next year. Their representation may increase.
Lateral Entry: More former bureaucrats could join the cabinet. The name of former RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is doing the rounds.
OBC Focus: The OBC bloc is politically crucial. With the ongoing census including a caste column, there could be renewed focus on OBC representation.
